“Bitcoin 2013-2015//2017-2019 Comparison & Analysis” by trader Bt360 — published January 12, 2019 — TradingView

Has BTC found its bottom? My guess is probably not.

Looking at a weekly log chart helps us visualize the trend that has been established throughout Bitcoin’s life time since its inception.

By analyzing the structure of Bitcoin’s market structure, we can see a reasonable-enough resemblance between Btc’s 2013-2015 cycle, and the 2017-Present market cycle.

With that said, here is my breakdown of the price action thus far.

Hypothetically speaking, if Bitcoin were to replicate the decline from its 2013 top to its 2015 bottom, it would take about 59 weeks and yield roughly an 87% decline.

From top to bottom, that would have btc bottoming around the 2,500 level in the later half of January (marked by the short purple line).

Disregarding 2013-2015 market history, we see that the 200 Day Moving Average is currently holding firmly as a support from the December 14th dump to around 3,150-3,200.

December 14th Significance: Ironically, exactly one year earlier, Bitcoin found its top just shy of 20,000…Coincidence?

The blue footnote under the blue arrow represents where Volume starts to increase ahead of last year’s parabolic advance. The pink box shaded green represents a crucial area where we can identify a key area based on high volume: The lower yellow line represents extremely strong support as the 1800 level held during this time, & the upper green line represents a prior resistance turned to support around the 3000 level, which also qualifies as a significant psychological level.

As we can see, once the price broke out of this area, the 3000 level was retested to further validate the concept of prior resistance turning to support.

The major reason for not being sold on Bitcoin having already found its bottom lies purely in the Volume profile .

The large red candle enclosed in the golden rectangle illustrates the capitulation phase of the 2013-2015 market cycle, as Bitcoin found its bottom, and completed the final phase of the bear market.

Clearly we have not yet seen that for this current market cycle, which leads me to believe we still have room to go further downwards.

Interestingly, the apex of the triangle currently forming perfectly coincides with the 59 week duration (seen in the 2013-2015 market cycle) with the hypothetical ~87% decline, currently poised to break around the 20th of January, 2019 (+/- 7 days).

With all that said, I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. This is solely observations and hypothetical scenarios given the price history of Bitcoin , & my perspective from a technical standpoint. Absolutely anything can happen, as proven countless times before in this extremely volatile marketplace. I currently do not own any Bitcoin and do not plan to until confirmation of a bottom.

-None of this is Financial Advice- Just some ideas. Happy Trading!

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*