we could have another spurt up to 75, 76, but 7.3k is also good spot to sell your longs because, we can always drop heavily at
anyways, today i wanted to look more into larger picture frame, comparing past patterns.
here is the monthly chart.
so we have a in august, closing at 7700. many are saying, we are going to the moon now. well looks like it, monthly is golden crossing, nice…all good…but we are still getting resisted by 7MA, which is 7400ish. we closed all under that.
so in the past bear market, we had same twice. but some facts are interesting here.
1. month after , we did not have a higher high then the closing price
->this would mean that we would only spark up to 7.7k september, no more then that.
2.we can say that we have not closed above 7ma before in july or now, so we cannot be sure we are in uptrend from
now to 10k.
3.monthly also golden crossed, but price pretty much went sideways after the
4. price might be just stuck around 7k area, without heavy retracement to 6k or 5k, lowest 6.8~7.0k
5. september might be boring, but october might be fun(it showed a high 2month after the )
6. or we might go above 8k but retrace to 5.7k again. less possibility for now.
so these are easy speculations, also it would not go the same as past, as well as that the time period, speed of the market
is much faster than the past. so like 2~3month time period for us can be only 1month period. that is what we are seeing, pretty much at this point. we also have a chance to see 5.7k again, if monthly want to show a somewhat double, or triple
bottom formation below to 6k area. charts indicate that we will see slow sideways, it might take time now.
what is most sure is that we are almost okay to say that the bottom is almost made at 5.7k this year.
weekly basis, we see 7.4k is also in resistance at 21ma, if we follow the past path, 7.6~7.7k will be most likely the top followed by a
now we are seeing so many sellers, 1hr candles, these wicked candles indicate 7400 is not easy to penetrate. even if we do
we would see more sellers at 7.5~7.7k area.
so, i do think we are going up in the mid-long term, we have so many whales buying huge amount of btc’s below level, which
we will not drop so much now. however, we would might not get the chance to go to the moon, like over 8k this month, maybe
the top is 7.7~7.8 at the most.
so trading now, is very timid, mostly, we have to buy at oversold conditions, mo matter what price. i am concerned with daily , it is almost now at the top, desperately wanting a retracement, leg down. this eventually will come, and i think, going long,
heavy can be tried, when daily is flattened. more conviction.
so i think, now two scenarios, retracement could come at 7.3~7.4k level, or 7.6~7.7. both would lead to at least 7.28 or 7.32,
so for margin players, i think putting short orders not at 73/74 small, with heavy uplevel should be played out.
simple trading plans are.
1. open short
sell:7.1/7.0/or 6.4(more update)
2. open longs
7.28~7.3, lowest 7.23~4